Markets

Predictions and Synthetics

Prediction markets, synthetic indices, odds, settlement, resolution, and risk labeling.

Mapa conceitual

A prediction is a binary or conditional market.
Odds represent implied probability and risk.
Synthetic markets are generated by an internal engine.
External data markets must be clearly labeled as external feeds.

Flowchart

  1. 1Market opens
  2. 2Users position
  3. 3Session closes
  4. 4Condition resolves
  5. 5Payout settles

Diagrama operacional

Open -> odds -> positions -> resolution -> settlement

Introduction

Predictions and Synthetics is an official layer of the AVEXUM infrastructure. This section explains the product rationale, expected behavior, and operational limits.

Clear labeling between synthetic and external data is essential for user trust.

Core Principles

AVEXUM separates social experience, trading, reputation, and governance into clear modules that work independently and remain consistent together.

  • Operational transparency before complexity.
  • Simple user-facing rules with auditable platform models.
  • Stable product first, then automation, APIs, and future on-chain layers.

How It Works

Each important action should leave a traceable record: input, validation, calculation, persistence, interface update, and historical log.

Best Practices

Users, creators, and operators should review liquidity, history, reputation, volatility, concentration, and market events before acting.

  • Compare short and medium-term metrics.
  • Do not assume isolated volume means quality.
  • Read risk notices before using new markets.

Examples

  • A synthetic meme index closes above or below the session open.

Formulas and Numeric Reading

  • Net return = payout - stake - applicable fees

Important Notices

  • Predictions are highly risky.
  • Short windows amplify noise.

Best Practices

  • Understand settlement rules.
  • Avoid overtrading.
  • Manage stake size.

Next Features

  • Settlement explorer
  • Thematic indices
  • Session replay

Related Roadmap

Market calendar
Auditable settlement
Odds history
Engine replay

Specific FAQ

Why does predictions exist on AVEXUM?

To make product rules auditable, predictable, and easy to understand.

Does this guarantee returns?

No. Documentation explains mechanics and risk; it does not promise financial results.

Can parameters change?

Yes. Relevant changes should be versioned, communicated, and reflected in public documentation.

How should users interpret predictions?

As market infrastructure, never as a buy or sell recommendation.